RUSSIA CONCEPTUALISED MODEL TO PREDICT OUTCOME OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

RUSSIA CONCEPTUALISED MODEL TO PREDICT OUTCOME OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT AND WEST VS EAST ALLIANCES BY ARIANE BRITO 29TH OF MAY 2022

Abstract: I propose a pre-design of Russia in a conceptualised historical analysis model where Russia and the West are both integrated in a commercial market that guarantees National security systems efficiency based on military defence supplies by Russia and the West separately.

This model of historical analysis has three progressive stages based on current historical data and primary sources:

Introduction

The climate of terrorism and geopolitical terror where Caliphates come, and Caliphates go!

On the 12th of January 2018, the Amnesty international UK published an article titled “How ISIS Islamic State got its weapons – Iraq-Syria, which concluded with the following appeal:

“We must learn from the failures and take urgent action to curb future arms proliferation in Iraq, Syria and other unstable regions. We’re calling on all countries to stop arming Syrian Government forces and armed opposition groups implicated in war crimes. States must prevent the sale of weapons to Iraq until it can be demonstrated that adequate measures are in place to prevent those arms ending up in the hands if IS or being used to commit serious violations of international law”.

In the United Kingdom, the Government applies the proscription criteria under the Terrorist Act 2000 to ban an organisation or group believed to be engaging in terrorist groups or activities.

Individuals advocating, wearing clothing or symbols on behalf of proscribed organisations will also be charged with criminal offences punishable up to 14 years in prisons.

UK and Eu assets freezes are other measures that can be put in place.

Development

If Terrorists and Russian Designated Persons, Russian sports figures are treated the same-are they the same?

Are Russian citizens and athletes being sanctioned and banned under the Terrorism Act 2000 and if not, why are their assets frozen as well?

Though we are talking about completely different packages of legislations the Proscription Offences under The Terrorist Act 2000 are applied under the British Government Home Secretary discretion to apply the Proscription Test and Criteria, while in the Russia (Sanctions) EU Exit ( Amendment) Regulations 202  - Amendment of the Russia (Sanctions ) Eu Regulations 2019 the Secretary of State also applies discretionary criteria under specific tests :

“ 6. The Secretary of State may now designate a person under regulation 5 (power to designate persons) unless the Secretary of State……”

in legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/123regulation/3/made

Is worst while noticing that another similarity between the two legal instruments, is that the sanctions, bans and assets freezes of Russian designated persons and entities and separatists are done mostly in a co-ordinated effort with the European Union, the United States Government and allies.

The most important moments of the Russian Sanctions process in the UK are the following,

1.      The Home Secretary answered questions in the House of Commons and laid the strategy for Domestic sanctions and asset freezes.

2.      The British Government introduced legislation.

3.      Heated Debate between the MPs pro and against intervention in the Russia-Ukraine affair.

4.      MPS and research groups provided research findings.

5.      Legislation was passed favourably.

6.      The British Foreign Affairs Secretary announced punitive sanctions against Russia in accordance with EU and allies.

6.1.Sanctions and travel ban on Russian lawmakers who vetoed to recognise independence of provinces Luhansk and Donetsk.

6.2.Punitive sanctions and travel ban on Russia media operative e.g., Russia Today.

6.3.Asset Freezes (Designated Persons).

6.4.Sectors where financial sanctions can be applied (source Public UK Government delivery): Legal; Financial and Insurance; Not-For-Profit; Retail; Travel, tourism and hospitality; Energy; Housing; Education; Government and Public sector; Professional services; Members of the Public; Import/Export; Manufacturing; Media; Pharmaceutical healthcare; Telecommunications; Regulators.

6.5.The Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) published a blog post-dated the 10th of March 2022 titled ‘ Russia: What has changed and what do I need to do ?’,  explaining the rational of the sanctions package centred in the Ukraine sovereign integrity and why the imposed anti freezes on Russian Designated Persons and the imposed financial and investment restriction on Russian entities using the Russian sanctions regulations are part of the British society  common effort for a safer world.

6.6.The British Foreign Affairs Secretary announced 178 sanctions in Britain and in the European Union targeting Russian separatists in Ukraine territories.  The UK Government maintained the sanctions on Russian oligarchs and their families and announced that further bans were following on Russian imports in the categories of steel, iron and luxury goods.  Though this legislation is put in place with European partnership, the Foreign Affairs secretary Liz Truss stated that other broader allies were working in partnership with the United Kingdom to enforce stronger actions such as banning Russia from using or benefiting from the international financial messaging network of financial transactions provided by SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications).

If the Russia Federation is a target of so many legal and financial instruments because of Ukraine and we are now almost two months into the UK and EU sanctions on Russian separatists operating in Ukraine territory, can we then say that the Russia Federation is either a terrorist funding State or a terrorist State itself, and a concerted NATO invasion will follow regardless of a NATO Article 5 breach?

I believe that when comes to the Eastern Europe ethnic mosaic, the lessons listed by Elena Pokalova in 2010 ‘Framing Separatism as Terrorism: Lessons from Kosovo’ apply when she states, “Framing separatism as terrorism allows states to avoid addressing the ethno-nationalist roots of separatist conflicts”.

In Elena Pokalova (2010) Framing Separatism as Terrorism; Lessons from Kosovo, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 33:5, 429-447, DOI : 10.1080/105761011003691564

Would also be legitimate to ask why the United Kingdom and allies are not applying sanctions to other nations in Southeast Asia or promoting Media Humanitarian Campaigns advocating for Governments facing separatists such as Indonesia and the Philippines?

If we adopt a more in-depth approach from a United Kingdom and European Union points of view, we have to ask why the same legal instruments were not applied to Ireland, considering that the UK physical security is since a few years a matter of concern to Europe’s police EUROPOL, which listed the Irish Dissident Republican Group under the ‘Ethno-Nationalist and Separatist Terrorism, stating in 2016 that groups as this are extremely violent and now, I quote,

“In May 2017, the threat level in the UK for terrorism related to Northern Ireland was raised from ‘moderate’ to ‘substantial’, which means an attack is a strong possibility”

In Europol.europa.eu/tesat/2017/3.ETHNO-NATIONALIST_AND_SEPARATIST.TERRORISM.html

This violent threat of Irish ethno-nationalist and separatist territories is in the West hemisphere. Yet, on the 6th of April 2022, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office published an authored article by the RT Hon Foreign Secretary of State Liz titled ‘The West Must Show Putin its collective strength!’

For the purposes of my analysis in this presentation talk available at Ariane Brito Analysis, a personal podcast blog, I quote this article to show how a conceptual dichotomy has been established by the UK Foreign Affairs Secretary of EAST vs WEST with an interoperability only possible if under leadership of NATO and partnership of NATO members like the UK (vs Russia), being Ukraine the delimitation of a border which the Russian Federation personified in President Putin will not advance further.

Now, I quote the UK Foreign Affairs Secretary,

“We must strengthen NATO’s own defence of reinforcing our presence in the East and ensuring that we have the agility to strike aggressor’s when they least expect it”

In gov.uk/government/speeches/the-west-must-show-putting-its-collective-strenght-article-by-liz-truss

No mention of the following European nation’s secessionist and autonomist political movements and how long will take for them to arm themselves, namely and for a minimal sample of such movements only, I list,

1.      Belgium’s German autonomist Pro DG, Party for Freedom and Progress, Christian Social Party, Flemish Movement, Wallgon Autonomist movement which wants to leave the country Belgium and join France!

Are any UK Government or EU sanctions on the way to France?

2.      Serbs of the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina which wish to leave this country to join neighbouring Serbia Republic and are conducting secessionist political activities under:

2.1.Serbian Radical Party

2.2.Alliance of Independent Social Democrats

2.3.Serbian Democratic Party

3.      Croats who wish to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina to form a state of its own

Also, no mention of what will happen if United Nations member states start to recognise the separatist provinces of Ukraine as independent states or part of Russia, as Caucasus states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognised as independent by Russia and other four UN member states.

A sentence of Britain’s Foreign Affairs Secretary which caught my attention, now I quote,

“The UK is proud to be the largest defence spender in Europe. I applaud those nations – from Germany and Italy to Sweden and Poland- who have stepped up to boost their defence budgets”.

                                                     In ibidem

Well, Germany has had nine separatist movements during our modern western history and just last month, April 18th, 2022, DIE FRIESEN (die-friesen.eu) which seeks separatism from Germany, announced nomination of Candidates for State elections.

Let’s see, Italy! Italy currently has four provinces actively seeking secession as independent state and has political autonomist and secessionist multi-parties (left to right political spectrums) in all four provinces working for status of independent state.

What about Catalan independence campaigns from Spain? Are other European countries to bear the blame of is Spain victimised in the process?

Au contraire, on the 30th of July 2020, the United Kingdom parliament published a report where the fault was laid on Spain itself, in very nuanced terms, now I quote,

“Understanding the context to the Catalan crisis goes part of the way in explaining the political instability in Spain and its polarised and fragmented political landscape”.

In Catalan Independence Report Research Briefing, House of Commons, 30th of July 2020, commonslibrary.parliament.uk. research-briefings/cbp-8976

Is also worst noticing that ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna – Basque Homeland and Security) is a proscribed terrorist group by the United Kingdom Government but has not raised NATO alarms.

Just two months ago, in March 2022, Spain has sent armament to Ukraine, so exactly what is behind NATO involvement in Russia and Ukraine?

A few minutes ago, I quoted the UK Foreign Affairs Secretary article where she laid the principles of western security in her conceptualised world of EAST vs WEST , with East in need of western support guidance and policing but does this mean that Russia is a State Non Grata in the West, facing  an imminent invasion by western forces because of the invasion of Ukraine, or is the present blacklisting of Russia as an effective  step leading to the future status of Russia as terrorist state?

To understand why the West as a category of analysis involving NATO military expansion is short lived, I propose a pre-design of Russia in a conceptualised model where Russia and the West are both integrated in a commercial market that guarantees National security systems efficiency based on military defence supplies by Russia and the West separately.

This model created by me has the following three progressive stages based on current historical data and primary sources:

1.Competition: Defined markets and fluidity in suppliers of raw materials

2. Diversification of sources by venturing into territories where the West lacks access due to historical conflicts and oppressive repressive exploitative regimes e.g., colonialism and Russia ( then USSR supply of armament and training to African students which ended up as African leaders of the first independent African states in contemporary history).

3. Present- Substitution tactics at the Supra-Governmental levels. Russia coming up as a force that rivals in authority with western nations and aims to invalidate their warfare from a “moral” standpoint.

A perfect example of such is the Russia Federation verbal incursions at the diplomatic level against the US invasion of Iraq and the use of British International Peace institutions reports as sources to prove that the UK supplied large armament to ISIS in a premeditated manner, by supplying armament to a long-standing partner in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia.

Historical commercial relations and present trade leverage of the European countries against Africa also were mentioned several times by top Russian diplomatic officials at the United Nations level.

Most recently, President Putin defending his country expansionist military campaigns philosophised about the birth of Black Lives Matter in America as a social reply to racially motivated police violence. His close officials at the United Nations level and most notably Madam Milosevic during her and her husband trials at the Hague, disserted publicly on western Europe transatlantic slave trade legacy guaranteeing capital accumulation in western Europe without any major achievement by their societies, while Eastern Europe societies truly worked for their legacy.

The Russian Federation self-proclaimed co-victory with Syria over ISIS in an era where Britain throughout emphasised and campaigned alongside France against Assad regime , without really proving successful in providing effective preventive measures to prevent British youths from joining in future Middle East caliphates, further created a superior moral level where Russia looks down to the west when in international platforms.

Words emanating moral superiority are easy to say, and moral or immoral positions count very little for the daily realities of lives impacted by the supplies of offensive armament, or lives impacted by the lack of international assistance with armament!

In 2021, the United States Congress informed the legislative body that Russia had evolved their commercial partnership with Vietnam into an expansionist strategic partnership where enemies and weaker neighbours were vulnerable to military threats with the Russian Federation as executioner or coercive military arm.

Where does this political leadership assertion leave us to form and inform a public opinion, when we also have the UK Foreign Affairs Secretary writing in the British newspaper the Telegraph on how Russia can’t go further in the line marking the delineation between the West and Eastern Europe: Ukraine and it’s disputed borders afflicted with ethno-nationalist violence?

Considering that in the 14th of October 2021 the US Congress answered its own question “ What other measures could increase the pressure on and isolation of Russia’s Defence industry?”, we the public must form an opinion based on peace activism, and above all, we must not leave the matter in the hands of politicians who in first instance had the means, leverage and power to supervise Russia throughout it’s ascension to the position of one of the most powerful nuclear leaders of the world!

Conclusion

Has the west forgot NATO is all about leaving half-game and Russia is all about winning?

In my model of analysis , stage 3 – Present: Substitution tactics by Russia Federation, the West concedes to a Russian Federation whose politicians likewise their people want nothing but the materialist benefits of high volumes of money coming in through their imports scales; a Russian Federation in a stage of substitution of world leadership ( West gone- Russia Federation in) with the support of non-aligned nations like Syria, Venezuela and NATO members such as Turkey, who wishes to secure effective, peaceful Middle and Near East borders and contain Libya and Syria rebels armed by West allies as Saudi Arabia, keep terrorists away from its domestic territories and Kurdish nations powerful Expat lobbies in Eastern countries  demoted of the power harboured with west financial funds and west humanitarian agencies lobbying.

In this historical analysis model, the Russia Federation expansionist strategy for complete world dominance wins by default because the West is, as always, finishing mid-game: look at Kosovo, look at Bosnia-Herzegovina, look at Syria and see the Threefold Repetition Rule in our present days.

Thank you for joining me in this presentation talk. I will now take your questions.

Ariane Brito

London

29th of May 2022